Prediction Market Expert
$30–45/hr
Remote finance contract with Alignerr, $30–45/hr. Posted Oct 27.
$30–45/hr
Apply on AlignerrIs this job worth applying to?
- Pay
- Below typicalTops out at $45/hr. The typical top rate across 145 priced finance listings is $100/hr.
- Getting in
- Hard to get in~1–2 hours of assessments. Valid government photo ID.
- Steady work
- Work is patchyFeast-or-famine project volume.
- Payout record
- Some delaysSchedule: weekly, by Friday for the prior Monday–Sunday. Paid via Stripe or PayPal (depends on country).
- Freshness
- RecentPosted 10d ago. Still listed on Alignerr on Nov 6, 2026.
- Where you live
- Not statedThe listing names no country.
The job description
About the Role
We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty.
If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you.
What You'll Do
- Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market events
- Assign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public information
- Articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formats
- Review and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistency
- Interpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signals
- Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks
Who You Are
- Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certainties
- Up-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developments
- Able to articulate your reasoning clearly in writing
- Detail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approach
- Familiar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not required
- Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment
Nice to Have
- Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalism
- Experience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platforms
- Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques
Why Join Us
- Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impact
- Fully remote and flexible — work when it suits you
- Freelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract work
- Contribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilities
- Join a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI
How do you apply to Alignerr?
Apply on Alignerr
The Apply button opens this post on Alignerr's own site. You apply with them, not with Rubric. Budget about 1–2 hours of assessments.
Get through screening
What Alignerr asks for after you apply:
- Take the TestGorilla skills assessment (usually one attempt per role)
- Verify your identity with Persona
- Join the Alignerr Slack community
- Set up payouts once you are assigned to a project
Start work and get paid
Pay schedule: weekly, by Friday for the prior Monday–Sunday. Paid via Stripe or PayPal (depends on country). You're paid for the work they hand out, not a fixed salary.
Alignerr also needs
- Valid government photo ID
- Degree or professional experience for expert roles
- Webcam for proctored assessments on some roles
Red flags
- Red flagLong gaps with no project after passing
- Red flagWorker reports of delayed or withheld payments on Glassdoor
What is Alignerr like to work for?
Labelbox's contractor network, which hires generalists and domain experts to label data and write and grade AI training tasks.
| Advertised pay | $15–150/hr |
|---|---|
| Getting in | Hard to get in |
| Application takes | ~1–2 hours of assessments |
| How you get paid | Weekly, by Friday for the prior Monday–Sunday, via Stripe or PayPal (depends on country) |
| Payout record | Some delays |
| Countries | Accepts most countries but blocks signups from about two dozen; posts India-specific roles such as Hindi, Telugu and Indian-English language and cultural review work. |
Generalist and bilingual work is around $15–20/hr, coding QA $30–40/hr, and senior software, advanced math, medical and law roles $70–150/hr; some projects pay per approved task.
